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Perspective

Q3 2024 Murphy Large Cap Value Commentary

This quarter has come with significant challenges: A contentious political contest, two wars, a national debt that has reached epic proportions, China’s lethargic economy, hurricanes, wobbling interest rates, labor strife, high consumer debt, inflation, deflation, and a stock market near all-time highs. But despite these hurdles, we remain optimistic for the rest of the year and 2025 with our bottoms up research process. Our strategy is diversified across industry sectors and targets companies eliciting our highest level of confidence. Despite the considerable background noise, most companies are performing well. Those that aren’t quickly hear about it from their boards and shareholders. Equity markets have performed well, with the S&P 500 up 21%, the Russell Value Index up 18.5%, the Dow Jones up 14%, and Mid Cap Value up 15%. By subsector, Utilities are up 32%, Financials are up 27%, Industrials are up 23%, Information Technology is up 20%, Consumer Staples is up 17%, Health Care is up 13%, and Energy is up 10%.

In other areas of the socioeconomic climate, re-shoring U.S. manufacturing is becoming a popular topic, there seems to be an abundance of government stimulus from Democrats and potential tax cuts from the Republicans, artificial intelligence (AI) is driving investments not just in technology, but in Energy, Utilities, and industrial cooling. A drive to be healthier has driven less fast food, processed foods, and more GLP-1 drugs. Interest in electric vehicles and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) has dropped off considerably. In the political sphere, if Vice President Kamala Harris secures the presidency, but the Republican party becomes the majority in Congress, the market anticipates a small selloff. However, if former president Donald Trump wins the election, but his tariff ideas are declined, the market anticipates a small bump will occur.

Our research team is performing well, and new idea generation remains excellent. For nearly 30 years, our firm’s unflinching investment style has been Contrarian Value Catalyst. We were in business before the Russell 1000 Value Index was created, and we’ve stayed true to our values despite the popularity of momentum factors. Our strategies focus on finding catalysts that could impact a portfolio within 12-18 months, and we pride ourselves on our ability to find hidden assets and income statements that may have been overlooked, but could boost the valuation of a company. Despite being catalyst-focused and contrarian, we don’t invest in chaos and we don’t favor spectacular turnaround stories. We like well-managed companies, good balance sheets, and stable industries. We dislike binary bets and rarely ever make them.

Performance Highlights

The Easterly Murphy Large Cap Value Strategy delivered a solid positive net return of 6.12% for the third quarter of 2024 (Q3 2024), but it underperformed in relation to the benchmark, which returned 9.43%. The portfolio’s underperformance was mainly driven by both negative selection and negative allocation effects across multiple sectors, as stock selection and positioning contributed to a drag on overall performance.

At the sector level, Information Technology, Communication Services, and Utilities made positive contributions, with strong stock selection in these areas. However, significant negative attribution came from Consumer Staples, where poor stock selection played a major role, along with Health Care, where stock selection also detracted from performance. Cash held a modest portion of the portfolio, which limited upside during the period of positive benchmark returns.

In summary, the portfolio’s underperformance was primarily due to sector weights driven by fundamental bottom-up stock selection, leading to a mix of positive and negative outcomes across different holdings.

Performance Attribution

Top 5 Performance Contributors

StockAvg Weight %Contribution % (net)
EVERSOURCE ENERGY4.510.85
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL5.020.84
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.6.310.71
VIATRIS INC.5.140.68
CISCO SYSTEMS INC.5.140.66

Eversource Energy (ES)

ES delivered a strong performance during the Q3 2024, largely driven by its operations in the Utilities sector. Key corporate actions, such as the completion of its exit from offshore wind projects (which resulted in proceeds of $745 million) contributed significantly to financial improvements. During the Q2 2024, ES reported GAAP earnings of $335.3 million, or $0.95 per share, showing a notable recovery compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.715 per share, reinforcing investor confidence. Strong performance in its electric and natural gas distribution segments further contributed to the company’s results. Overall, ES’s strategic focus on enhancing grid modernization and divesting non-core assets positions it well for continued growth.

We believe ES remains a solid investment due to its dominant position in the New England utility market and its steady revenue generation from electric and natural gas distribution. The company’s focus on infrastructure improvements and its commitment to modernization, as reflected in the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities’ approval of its Electric Sector Modernization Plan, strengthens its long-term growth potential. The recent exit from offshore wind projects has helped improve free cash flow, reduce debt, and stabilize operations. The stock isn’t considered to be overpriced at this time, making it a compelling value play within the Utilities sector, driven by strong fundamentals and operational efficiency.

Johnson Controls International (JCI)

JCI posted a strong stock return for Q3 2024, benefiting from its leadership in the Industrials sector. The company’s sale of its residential and light commercial HVAC business to Bosch for $6.7 billion contributed significantly to the positive performance. Additionally, JCI reported a Q3 GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.45 and adjusted EPS of $1.14, which exceeded market expectations. Its Building Solutions backlog increased by 10% year-over-year, supporting the company’s growth trajectory. The continued demand for smart buildings and energy management solutions further strengthened investor sentiment. Not to mention the leadership change discussions with activist Elliot Management, which included the recent retirement announcement of George Oliver, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of JCI, who was largely regarded as an unpopular figure in the organization. This strong performance highlights JCI’s ability to execute its strategic plans effectively.

JCI is well-positioned for sustained growth due to its focus on smart buildings, energy efficiency, and digital transformation. The sale of non-core assets, such as its HVAC business, allows the company to focus on its core strengths in building technologies and solutions. Its robust financial performance, with increasing backlog and steady earnings, supports an optimistic outlook for future growth. The stock isn’t perceived to be overvalued, and the company’s strategy to streamline operations and invest in artificial intelligence (AI) and smart building technology strengthens its long-term investment appeal.

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

VZ delivered a strong stock return for Q3 of 2024, driven by key strategic actions in the Communication Services sector. A notable contributor was VZ’s $20 billion acquisition of Frontier Communications, aimed at expanding its fiber network, which has been well-received by the market despite some initial concerns. Additionally, VZ increased its dividend for the 18th consecutive year, boosting investor confidence with a yield of 6.53%. The company also struck a $3.3 billion lease deal for its towers with Vertical Bridge, which supported financial performance during the period. While VZ faced challenges with service outages, its focus on network growth and dividend stability underscores its resilience. VZ’s steady financial actions highlight its strong positioning in the sector.

VZ’s strategic focus on expanding its fiber network through the acquisition of Frontier Communications aligns with its long-term growth potential in the connectivity and communications space. Despite some short-term risks related to its debt load, the company’s dividend policy remains a strong selling point for income-seeking investors, especially with its high yield and 18-year streak of increases. VZ’s solid infrastructure and network capabilities, along with its ongoing capital investments, position it for sustained performance. The stock appears to be reasonably valued, offering a stable return with potential upside as it continues executing its expansion strategy.

Top 5 Performance Detractors

StockAvg Weight %Contribution % (net)
DOLLAR TREE INC.1.44-0.69
MERCK & CO INC.3.85-0.32
COTERRA ENERGY INC.2.24-0.27
FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO S.A.B.2.19-0.26
DELEK US HOLDINGS INC.1.05-0.24

Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)

DLTR experienced a sharp stock decline in Q3 2024, underperforming within the Consumer Staples sector. This significant drop in stock price followed weak Q2 earnings, where the company missed estimates with earnings per share of $0.67 versus the expected $1.03. DLTR’s forecast cut, citing “immense pressures” on its middle- and higher-income customers due to inflation, further exacerbated investor concerns. Same-store sales growth slowed to just 1.3%, below Wall Street expectations, and the Family Dollar segment posted a decline of 0.1%. Considering these challenges and a downgraded outlook, we have decided to exit the position, given the stock’s substantial underperformance and ongoing headwinds.

We exited the DLTR position due to a fundamental shift in the investment thesis. The company’s weak earnings results, worsened by higher costs and reduced consumer demand, have undermined its potential for near-term recovery. The stock, now trading at multi-year lows, reflects significant pressures on margins and rising competition. While DLTR once presented an opportunity for growth in the discount retail space, its current valuation, coupled with macroeconomic challenges, no longer aligns with our expectations for sustainable performance. Consequently, the stock now reflects a tone of limited upside potential, leading to our decision to sell.

Merck & Co Inc. (MRK)

MRK underperformed in Q3 2024 in the Health Care sector. Concerns over the growth path of GARDASIL® largely contributed to this underperformance. While we believe the vaccine hit difficulties in China, it’s projected to increase to over $10 billion in revenue by 2030, per Merk management.1

Despite the recent stock decline, we view MRK’s long-term potential as favorable and added to our position. The company’s diversified portfolio, including the success of its oncology and vaccines businesses, continues to provide a strong growth foundation. Moreover, MRK’s pipeline of new drugs and recent acquisitions, such as the experimental B-cell disease drug, demonstrate its strategic focus on long-term growth. While the stock currently reflects some overhang from clinical trial failures and reduced guidance, we believe it is underpriced relative to its intrinsic value, offering an attractive entry point for future gains.

Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)

CTRA underperformed in Q3 2024. This led us to trim the position due to several key challenges, including weaker-than-expected natural gas prices, which significantly impacted the company’s profitability. CTRA’s Q2 earnings of $0.37 per share missed estimates, reflecting the adverse effects of declining gas prices. Additionally, full-year guidance revisions, including a capital expenditure budget of $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion and lower projected oil production, highlighted the company’s cautious outlook for the remainder of the year. While CTRA’s production numbers across oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) exceeded guidance, the broader pricing environment remained unfavorable, leading to pressure on margins.

Despite trimming our position, we maintain a cautious yet optimistic stance on CTRA. The company’s diversified asset base in the Permian Basin, Marcellus Shale, and Anadarko Basin provides long-term growth potential, and its disciplined capital allocation and low debt levels offer financial stability. However, the recent performance reflects the challenges of the macroeconomic environment, particularly in natural gas pricing, which dampens near-term expectations. While the stock’s current valuation suggests it may be underpriced relative to its intrinsic value, we’re carefully monitoring the sector for potential improvements before increasing exposure.

Positioning

StockPortfolio Weight (%)Sector
Verizon Communications Inc.5.83Communication Services
Cisco Systems Inc.5.28Information Technology
Bank of America Corp5.25Financials
Eversource Energy5.03Utilities
Viatris Inc.4.99Health Care
Dow Inc.4.98Materials
Johnson Controls International4.9Industrials
Merck & Co Inc.4.41Health Care
Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB3.58Consumer Staples
Quanterix Corp3.55Health Care
TOTAL47.78

The largest sector overweights in the portfolio are in Materials and Communication Services, reflecting bottom-up stock selection rather than macroeconomic views. The conservative cash allocation stands out as a notable position. The portfolio is significantly underweight in Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Real Estate.
The largest sector allocations are in Financials, Health Care, and Consumer Staples. These sectors contain the highest number of holdings and represent a substantial portion of the overall portfolio weight.

Overall, the sector exposure is entirely a result of bottom-up stock selection, without reflecting any specific macroeconomic views. The portfolio’s overweight and underweight positions are purely driven by individual stock opportunities.

Outlook

In managing the Easterly Murphy Large Cap Value Strategy, we remain laser-focused on populating our strategy with companies featuring great balance sheets, real free-cash-flows, stock-specific catalysts, and a path towards a normalized earnings recovery—which we expect will ultimately lead to a price-to-earnings (P/E) re-rating. While the visible uncertainties today seem to stand in contrast to the market’s steady climb, Murphy’s research team remains agile and eager to continue being an effective steward of capital no matter the macroeconomic or geopolitical backdrop.

Source: Bloomberg

1 Morgan Stanley 22nd Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 9/5/2024

Securities shown represent the highest contributors and detractors to the portfolio’s performance for the period and do not represent all holdings within the portfolio. There is no guarantee that such holdings currently or will remain in the portfolio. For a complete list of holdings and an explanation of the methodology employed to determine this information, please contact Easterly. This information is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument nor does it constitute an offer or invitation to invest in any fund managed by Easterly and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

Trailing Performance (%)

as of September 30, 2024

QTDYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr7 Yr10 YrSince Inception*
Composite (gross)6.2320.1528.4110.8612.519.3010.509.60
Composite (net)6.1219.7527.8410.3612.008.8110.009.11
Russell 1000 Value9.4316.6827.769.0210.689.539.227.41

Calendar Year Performance (%)

2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Composite (gross)11.20-3.1323.728.0714.44-8.1814.6219.182.7213.30
Composite (net)10.71-3.5523.187.5713.93-8.6014.1118.662.2612.79
Russell 1000 Value11.46-7.5425.162.8026.54-8.2713.6617.34-3.8313.45

Source: SEI Global Services

*Inception: 1/1/2007

Performance shown is the Easterly Investment Partners LLC (“the Firm”) Large Cap Value composite in USD. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Gross performance results do not include advisory fees and other expenses an investor may incur, which when deducted will reduce returns. Changes in exchange rates may have adverse effects. Net performance results reflect the application of a model investment management fee which is higher than the actual average weighted management fee charged to accounts in the composite applied to gross performance results. Actual fees may vary depending on, among other things, the applicable fee schedule and portfolio size. The Firm claims compliance with the GIPS® standards; this information is supplemental to the GIPS® report included in this material. Returns greater than one year are annualized.

Attribution vs Russell 1000 Value

 


Source: Bloomberg
Holdings, sector weightings, market capitalization and portfolio characteristics are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio, and may differ, sometimes significantly, from individual client portfolios.

Easterly Investment Partners LLC Large Cap Value Composite GIPS® Report

Composite Inception Date: January 1, 2007
Composite Creation Date: April 1, 2019

Composite PerformanceAnnualized 3-Year Standard DeviationTotal Asset (millions)
Year
End
GrossNetRussell 1000® ValueCompositeRussell 1000® ValueComposite DispersionTotal Firm AssetsFirm (AUM)Firm (AUA)*Composite AUMNumber of Accounts
202311.20%10.71%11.46%16.89%16.74%N/A1,7301,090640250Five or fewer
2022-3.13%-3.55%-7.54%24.41%21.55%N/A1,8341,3414934496
202123.72%23.18%25.16%23.52%19.33%0.85%2,7181,5401,1785546
20208.07%7.57%2.80%23.83%19.90%0.80%2,1925991,5935096
201914.44%13.93%26.54%13.50%11.85%1.18%5,4353,8431,5921,64311
2018-8.18%-8.60%-8.27%11.54%10.82%0.37%--2,07918
201714.62%14.11%13.66%11.80%10.20%0.31%--3,19822
201619.18%18.66%17.34%12.29%10.77%0.40%--3,10521
20152.72%2.26%-3.83%11.37%10.68%0.28%--2,90022
201413.30%12.79%13.45%10.27%9.20%0.33%--3,17823

*Firm-wide advisory-only assets.  Assets under Advisement (AUA) includes the assets where Easterly Investment Partners (“Easterly”) provides its advisory services in similar strategies and does not have discretionary trading authority.

Firm Definition
For purposes of complying with the GIPS® standards, the firm is defined as Easterly Investment Partners LLC (“EIP”) which is an SEC registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended, effective January 2019. The firm was redefined on 1/1/2023 to reflect that EIP is comprised of two distinct firms: the institutional asset management operations, investment strategies, performance track records, certain employees and client accounts of Levin Capital Strategies, which were acquired by EIP in March 2019, and Snow Capital Management LLC’s (“SCM”) asset management business, investment strategies, performance track records, client accounts, and certain employees, acquired by EIP in July 2021.

Firm Verification Statement
Easterly claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Easterly has been independently verified for the period April 1, 2019 through December 31, 2023. A firm that claims compliance with the GIPS standards must establish policies and procedures for complying with all the applicable requirements of the GIPS standards. Verification provides assurance on whether the firm’s policies and procedures related to composite and pooled fund maintenance, as well as the calculation, presentation, and distribution of performance, have been designed in compliance with the GIPS standards and have been implemented on a firm-wide basis.

Composite Verification Statement
The Large Cap Value Composite has had a performance examination from composite inception date through December 31, 2023. The verification and performance examination reports are available upon request.

Composite Description
The Large Cap Value composite provides exposure to long-only US public equities and ADRs, with occasional investments in convertible and corporate bonds.  The strategy is biased toward large capitalization value stocks, and typically maintains between 30 and 40 positions, but may be more or less concentrated during various periods.

Benchmark Description
The Russell 1000® Value Total Return Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000® Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The total return index is the price level index plus the dividend reinvested. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The S&P 500 Index was retroactively removed as of 10/1/2022

Performance Calculation
All returns are calculated and presented in US dollars based on fully discretionary AUM, including those investors no longer with the firm. All gross composite returns are net of transaction costs and foreign withholding taxes, if any, and reflect the reinvestment of interest income and other earnings. Net performance results reflect the application of a model investment management fee which is higher than the actual average weighted management fee charged to accounts in the composite applied to gross performance results. Composite net returns are calculated by reducing the daily gross return by 1/12th of the highest advisory fee rate on day prior to month end (same day fees are booked), then linked with the daily returns to create the Monthly net return. Monthly net returns are then geometrically linked to calculate the annual net return. Actual fees may vary depending on, among other things, the applicable fee schedule and portfolio size. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients will vary. Policies for valuing investments, calculating performance, and preparing GIPS reports are available upon request. A list of composite descriptions and a list of broad distribution pooled funds are available upon request. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Results may be higher or lower based on IPO eligibility, and actual investor’s returns may differ, depending upon date(s) of investment(s). Additional information is available upon request.

Investment Management Fee Schedule
The current standard management fee schedule for a segregated account managed to the composite strategy is as follows: 0.45% on assets.

Composite Dispersion
The annual composite dispersion, if shown, is an asset-weighted standard deviation calculated using gross returns for the accounts in the composite the entire year. The internal dispersion measure is not applicable if there are five or fewer portfolios in the composite for the entire year if that is the reason this is N/A.

Standard Deviation
The annualized 3-year standard deviation represents the annualized standard deviation of actual gross composite and benchmark returns, using the rolling 36 months ended each year end. Standard deviation is a measurement of historical volatility of investment returns.

Trademark
GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein.

Important Disclosures

© 2024. Easterly Asset Management. All rights reserved.

Easterly Asset Management’s advisory affiliates (collectively, “EAM” or “the Firm”), including Easterly Investment Partners LLC, Easterly Funds LLC, and Easterly EAB Risk Solutions LLC (“Easterly EAB”) are registered with the SEC as investment advisers under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about the firm, including its investment strategies and objectives, can be found in each affiliate’s Form ADV Part 2 which is available on the www.sec.gov website. This information has been prepared solely for the use of the intended recipients; it may not be reproduced or disseminated, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of EAM.

No funds or investment services described herein are offered or will be sold in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or sale would be unlawful under the laws of such jurisdiction. No such fund or service is offered or will be sold in any jurisdiction in which registration, licensing, qualification, filing or notification would be required unless such registration, license, qualification, filing, or notification has been affected.

The material contains information regarding the investment approach described herein and is not a complete description of the investment objectives, risks, policies, guidelines or portfolio management and research that supports this investment approach. Any decision to engage the Firm should be based upon a review of the terms of the prospectus, offering documents or investment management agreement, as applicable, and the specific investment objectives, policies and guidelines that apply under the terms of such agreement. There is no guarantee investment objectives will be met. The investment process may change over time. The characteristics set forth are intended as a general illustration of some of the criteria the strategy team considers in selecting securities for client portfolios. Client portfolios are managed according to mutually agreed upon investment guidelines. No investment strategy or risk management techniques can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. All information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Investment products are not FDIC insured and may lose value.

Investments are subject to market risk, including the loss of principal. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate. The information contained herein does not consider any investor’s investment objectives, particular needs, or financial situation and the investment strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. Individual investment decisions should be discussed with a personal financial advisor. Any opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the portfolio managers as of the date of this material, may not align with the Firm’s opinion or trading strategies, and may differ from other research analysts’ opinions and investment outlook. The information herein is subject to change without notice and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. EAM assumes no obligation to update the information herein. References to securities, transactions or holdings should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security and there is no assurance that, as of the date of publication, the securities remain in the portfolio. Additionally, it is noted that the securities or transactions referenced do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended during the period referenced and there is no guarantee as to the future profitability of the securities identified and discussed herein. As a reminder, investment return and principal value will fluctuate. The indices cited are, generally, widely accepted benchmarks for investment performance within their relevant regions, sectors or asset classes, and represent non managed investment portfolio. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Any opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the portfolio managers as of the date of this material, may not align with the Firm’s opinion or trading strategies, and may differ from other research analysts’ opinions and investment outlook. The information herein is subject to change without notice and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. EAM assumes no obligation to update the information herein.

This communication may contain forward-looking statements, which reflect the views of EAM and/or its affiliates. These forward-looking statements can be identified by reference to words such as “believe”, “expect”, “potential”, “continue”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “seek”, “approximately”, “predict”, “intend”, “plan”, “estimate”, “anticipate” or other comparable words. These forward-looking statements or other predications or assumptions are subject to various risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Should any assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements contained herein prove to be incorrect, the actual outcome or results may differ materially from outcomes or results projected in these statements. EAM does not undertake any obligation to update or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by applicable law or regulation.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

20241030-3988209

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